Anticipation Of Trump’s Return - January 9th 2024

January 9th 2024

Yuriy discusses Putin's military strategy and his belief that capturing as much territory as possible this year will secure his hold with the help of Trump's reelection. He outlines the dangers of conceding to Putin and the potential consequences for Ukraine and the entire free world.

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TRANSCRIPT: (Podbean app users can enjoy closed captions)

  It's January 9th. 

According to the standards of modern armies, a unit that has lost more than 30% of its personnel killed, wounded, or sick is considered unfit for further combat. And it is not possible to simply add new soldiers in place of those who have dropped out. It does not work that way. Even experienced soldiers need to learn to work together, learn to understand each other without words, and literally feel each other. Therefore, units with heavy losses are usually withdrawn from the front for renewal. This is how the process of integrating new fighters is called. 

But the Russians, as far as I can see, do not have any renewals. They throw into attack units that have lost not 30, but 50 and even 70% of their personnel. No one teaches the recruits to understand their comrades, they are sent into the battle without any attempts to integrate them into the collective. Putin behaves as if he has endless reserves of people. As if he can drive battalion after battalion to death day after day, month after month. 

In fact, he has a very simple plan. He really needs not to lose the captured territories in the near future and try to occupy as many you once as possible. He's confident with everything he manages to capture by next January will be his forever. Why is he so sure? Well, because Donald Trump promised that if he's reelected, he will end the war simply by giving Putin part of regions of Ukraine. This is nonsense from start to finish. First, it is not for Trump to dispose of Ukrainian territory. Let him give Putin his Mar-A-Lago. Second, his victory in reelections is far from guaranteed. Well, and third he as often happens to him, may change his mind. 

But still all of Putin's plans are subordinated to only one event. The victory of Trump in the elections this year, and his return to the White House in January next year. Once again: Putin believes that he needs to capture as much territory as possible this year because he's confident that everything he manages to capture Trump will allow him to keep for himself. For Putin, this war has turned into a race against time and he's confident that he's winning it. 

Yes, he no longer has a professional army. It was destroyed in the first months of the war, which were Russians emerged as a simple and safe operation to capture Ukraine. Yes, Putin's new army is already running out. Almost hundreds of thousands of civilians who have been forcibly driven into the army, whom Putin has long since stopped counting. But he still has millions of Russians who can be mobilized and sent to the trenches and when Trump will come to help. 

This is Putin's entire plan. There is no other one. To overwhelm the Ukrainian army with cannon fodder in anticipation of Trump's return. Trump, by the way, does not understand not only what the Ukrainians will not agree to give up their lands. He does not understand the even more important thing- that any concessions to Putin will not stop the war, that he perceives this concessions as a sign of weakness. The war will not end even with Trump's victory or with any other political event. The war will end either with a victory of Ukraine on the battlefield or with a destruction of many European states by Putin's scum. 

Trying to give him part of Ukraine is to clearly demonstrate to Putin that his black male is working, that the West is weak and afraid, that it is not ready to resist. Putin will eagerly cling to this part in order to eventually start a new offensive from it, not only on Ukraine, but the entire free world. So, pass it on to Trump.